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Her turn as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady is a bravura performance that goes beyond impersonation and finds a sad and regal truth about a once-powerful woman now battling memory loss. Moreover, it's the kind of thing Hollywood loves. But giving the Oscar to Streep would seem so, well, déjà vu.
Will win: Davis stole every scene from Streep in the 2008 film Doubt, and she will steal the Oscar from her this year. It will be a well-deserved win - Davis's performance as the downtrodden maid in The Help is a wonderfully subtle amalgam of dignity, humiliation and, finally, strength - that is helped along by the fact that she is a relative newcomer to the Oscars (she was nominated for her supporting role in Doubt), and that minority actors have been shut out for too long. She would join Halle Berry as the only African-American woman to win the Best Actress Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)
Should win: Branagh was hilarious as Sir Laurence Olivier in My Week With Marilyn, but this is Plummer's year. He was previously nominated in 2009 for The Last Station, an accomplished turn that nevertheless felt like a last-minute acknowledgment that this brilliant performer had never won an Oscar. In Beginners, he plays an older man who comes out of the closet after his wife dies, and he brings a tone of tender urbanity that is so economical, you almost don't notice your heart is being broken. An exquisite miniature from a master.
Will win: Plummer.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Berenice Bejo (The Artist), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Should win: If they gave awards for most memorable scene, Mc-Carthy would walk away with it for her pooping bridesmaid in Bridesmaids. But Spencer is also difficult to forget: Minny, her outspoken maid (what is it with all the maids?) in The Help gives the picture much of its backbone, and she brings to it the perfect combination of anger, sass and feistiness. She's a scenestealer, and scene-stealers always win the supporting awards.
Will win: Spencer.
Best Director
Nominees: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Should win: All of them, really, but the most interesting work was done by Malick, who created not just a world - Texas in the 1950s - but an entire universe. Malick's poetic/philosophical/ontological coming-of-age story encompassed the free and open fields of a Texas childhood with the cloistered terrors of an unhappy father, and, as a kind of bonus, the creation of the universe itself, a dreamy special-effects metaphor of one man's life.
Astounding, really.
Will win: The Artist director Hazanavicius has several things going for him, including momentum, freshness, and the sheer courage of his project: a Frenchman coming to Hollywood to make a silent movie about American cinema. The historic tropes, the visual storytelling, and the bandwagon effect will propel him to Oscar.
If you pay attention to the early awards - the Golden Globes, the Producers' Guild, the Directors' Guild and others - it's going to be a silent night tonight when the Academy Awards are handed out. The silent film, The Artist, is the odds-on favourite to dominate. But is it worthy?
Here's who should win (and who will win) the main Oscars on Sunday night:
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse
Should win: The combination of "show" and "business" is nowhere more apparent than in this category, where art and entertainment battle. The Tree of Life is the most daring and artful film, but The Artist - a silent movie about an actor who can't adapt to the era of talkies - is the year's most delightful surprise. It's a robust combination of novelty, ingenuity and sheer joy that, moreover, feeds into the zeitgeist. (Hugo is also concerned with old cinema; Midnight In Paris celebrates 1920s culture; and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close features a silent performance by Max von Sydow.) It would be only the second silent movie (after Wings, the 1927 silent that won the first Oscar) to be named best picture.
Will win: The Artist.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Demian Bichir (A Better Life), George Clooney (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Should win: In a normal year, this award would go to Clooney, who showed new depths of vulnerability and confusion as the lawyer with a comatose wife in The Descendants. There are two Clooneys: the Ocean's Eleven smoothie and the conflicted alpha male of Up in the Air, Michael Clayton or even Syriana, for which he won the Supporting Actor Oscar in 2005. This role is different, though. Clooney allows himself to be clunky (those flip-flops!), lost, and even sexually humiliated. It's a sly bit of casting by director Alexander Payne that undermines Clooney's hunky image and calls on him to discover real emotion.
Will win: Dujardin's turn as George Valentin in The Artist is a charming, insouciant performance of old-school charisma, all accomplished with (practically) no words. It's a different kind of acting in a different kind of picture, and while Dujardin works in a much more limited range, he was irresistible as the swashbuckling silent film star who falls and rises again. He'll be carried along by The Artist wave to the first Best Actor Oscar for a Frenchman.
Best Actress
Nominees: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), Viola Davis (The Help), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Should win: You can't say that Hollywood has ignored Streep: She has 17 Oscar nominations, more than any other actor in history. But academy voters seem to be of two minds about her. She's almost always good enough to nominate, but she would win every year if they let her, and it wouldn't look good. (Streep's latest Oscar came in 1982, for Sophie's Choice.)
And the winner is - Your guide to the Oscar categories and the nominees,
WATCHING THE OSCARS
Where & when: The red carpet live broadcast begins at 7 p.m. tonight on ABC and at 8 p.m. on CTV. The ceremony begins at 8: 30 p.m. on CTV and ABC.
More online: For more Oscar stories and photos of the stars, go to ottawacitizen.com/oscars
AND THE WINNER IS ... A GUIDE TO THE NOMINEES
BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly
Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
BEST ACTOR
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
A Cat In Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Bullhead, Belgium
Footnote, Israel
In Darkness, Poland
Monsier Lazhar, Canada
A Separation, Iran
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Midnight in Paris
Margin Call
A Separation
The Artist
Bridesmaids
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
BEST ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Man or Muppet from The Muppets
Real in Rio from Rio
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth
Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
BEST FILM EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
BEST MAKEUP
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
BEST SOUND EDITING
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
BEST SOUND MIXING
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris
Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
Will win: Davis stole every scene from Streep in the 2008 film Doubt, and she will steal the Oscar from her this year. It will be a well-deserved win - Davis's performance as the downtrodden maid in The Help is a wonderfully subtle amalgam of dignity, humiliation and, finally, strength - that is helped along by the fact that she is a relative newcomer to the Oscars (she was nominated for her supporting role in Doubt), and that minority actors have been shut out for too long. She would join Halle Berry as the only African-American woman to win the Best Actress Oscar.
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)
Should win: Branagh was hilarious as Sir Laurence Olivier in My Week With Marilyn, but this is Plummer's year. He was previously nominated in 2009 for The Last Station, an accomplished turn that nevertheless felt like a last-minute acknowledgment that this brilliant performer had never won an Oscar. In Beginners, he plays an older man who comes out of the closet after his wife dies, and he brings a tone of tender urbanity that is so economical, you almost don't notice your heart is being broken. An exquisite miniature from a master.
Will win: Plummer.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Berenice Bejo (The Artist), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Should win: If they gave awards for most memorable scene, Mc-Carthy would walk away with it for her pooping bridesmaid in Bridesmaids. But Spencer is also difficult to forget: Minny, her outspoken maid (what is it with all the maids?) in The Help gives the picture much of its backbone, and she brings to it the perfect combination of anger, sass and feistiness. She's a scenestealer, and scene-stealers always win the supporting awards.
Will win: Spencer.
Best Director
Nominees: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Should win: All of them, really, but the most interesting work was done by Malick, who created not just a world - Texas in the 1950s - but an entire universe. Malick's poetic/philosophical/ontological coming-of-age story encompassed the free and open fields of a Texas childhood with the cloistered terrors of an unhappy father, and, as a kind of bonus, the creation of the universe itself, a dreamy special-effects metaphor of one man's life.
Astounding, really.
Will win: The Artist director Hazanavicius has several things going for him, including momentum, freshness, and the sheer courage of his project: a Frenchman coming to Hollywood to make a silent movie about American cinema. The historic tropes, the visual storytelling, and the bandwagon effect will propel him to Oscar.
If you pay attention to the early awards - the Golden Globes, the Producers' Guild, the Directors' Guild and others - it's going to be a silent night tonight when the Academy Awards are handed out. The silent film, The Artist, is the odds-on favourite to dominate. But is it worthy?
Here's who should win (and who will win) the main Oscars on Sunday night:
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse
Should win: The combination of "show" and "business" is nowhere more apparent than in this category, where art and entertainment battle. The Tree of Life is the most daring and artful film, but The Artist - a silent movie about an actor who can't adapt to the era of talkies - is the year's most delightful surprise. It's a robust combination of novelty, ingenuity and sheer joy that, moreover, feeds into the zeitgeist. (Hugo is also concerned with old cinema; Midnight In Paris celebrates 1920s culture; and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close features a silent performance by Max von Sydow.) It would be only the second silent movie (after Wings, the 1927 silent that won the first Oscar) to be named best picture.
Will win: The Artist.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Demian Bichir (A Better Life), George Clooney (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Should win: In a normal year, this award would go to Clooney, who showed new depths of vulnerability and confusion as the lawyer with a comatose wife in The Descendants. There are two Clooneys: the Ocean's Eleven smoothie and the conflicted alpha male of Up in the Air, Michael Clayton or even Syriana, for which he won the Supporting Actor Oscar in 2005. This role is different, though. Clooney allows himself to be clunky (those flip-flops!), lost, and even sexually humiliated. It's a sly bit of casting by director Alexander Payne that undermines Clooney's hunky image and calls on him to discover real emotion.
Will win: Dujardin's turn as George Valentin in The Artist is a charming, insouciant performance of old-school charisma, all accomplished with (practically) no words. It's a different kind of acting in a different kind of picture, and while Dujardin works in a much more limited range, he was irresistible as the swashbuckling silent film star who falls and rises again. He'll be carried along by The Artist wave to the first Best Actor Oscar for a Frenchman.
Best Actress
Nominees: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), Viola Davis (The Help), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Should win: You can't say that Hollywood has ignored Streep: She has 17 Oscar nominations, more than any other actor in history. But academy voters seem to be of two minds about her. She's almost always good enough to nominate, but she would win every year if they let her, and it wouldn't look good. (Streep's latest Oscar came in 1982, for Sophie's Choice.)
And the winner is - Your guide to the Oscar categories and the nominees,
WATCHING THE OSCARS
Where & when: The red carpet live broadcast begins at 7 p.m. tonight on ABC and at 8 p.m. on CTV. The ceremony begins at 8: 30 p.m. on CTV and ABC.
More online: For more Oscar stories and photos of the stars, go to ottawacitizen.com/oscars
AND THE WINNER IS ... A GUIDE TO THE NOMINEES
BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly
Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
BEST ACTOR
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
A Cat In Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Bullhead, Belgium
Footnote, Israel
In Darkness, Poland
Monsier Lazhar, Canada
A Separation, Iran
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Midnight in Paris
Margin Call
A Separation
The Artist
Bridesmaids
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
BEST ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Man or Muppet from The Muppets
Real in Rio from Rio
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth
Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
BEST FILM EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
BEST MAKEUP
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
BEST SOUND EDITING
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
BEST SOUND MIXING
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris
Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
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